3.4 The Province's future direction of economic development, although presently outward looking, is also likely to become more inwardly orientated. This does not mean that exports will decline - on the contrary, there should continue to be strong growth in this sector. It does, however, mean that domestic markets will be growing in importance. The province has had a head start over other regions in China and is now well placed to become a supplier of consumer goods for the whole of China.
Agriculture
3.5 The loss of fertile agricultural land to new development is likely to continue there may, however, be some slowing of the process there are clearly large areas of land that have been prepared for development but without, as yet, a developer. The new controls on credit should limit this process at least in the short term. There should, however, be no loss in agricultural production - new reclamations are under construction and production can be further intensified. With rising prices for agricultural produce people will have the incentives to continue farming this has been the experience of mega-urban developments elsewhere in the world.
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3.6 Employment in farming is, however, likely to continue to fall - labour intensive methods are likely to be replaced by more machine intensive methods.
3.7 It is also expected that the trend towards specialisation will continue. With growing wealth there will be even more demand for green vegetables and fruit. These crops can be grown easily. Much of
the Pearl River Delta can also be used for the lucrative fish farming industry.
Industry
3.8 Although high growth rates are almost certain to continue, Guangdong's existing competitive advantages may soon begin to be eroded by other countries in Asia and other regions of China. Much will depend on the Province's ability to capitalise on the opportunities discussed in Section 2.5.
3.9 Heavy industry, partly because of its present inefficiency (and state ownership) but more as a result of the lack of mineral resources is unlikely to do well. One exception may be the petro-chemical industry - but only if large off-shore reserves of oil can be exploited.
3.10 The province is likely to rely more and more on light manufacturing. With increases in wages and skills, this should be more and more oriented to "higher-tech" industries. As discussed earlier these are not, however, going to be easy to attract. One problem is likely to be the high levels of pollution. Unless proper controls are instigated, many of these industries may be detracted from the area. The Consultants are, however, optimistic - Chinese officials clearly acknowledge the problem and may be in the process of taking the first steps towards solving it.
Service Sector
3.11 Most private sector services are likely to grow
Middle class housing
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