CONFIDENTIAL
24. Cuba: central control collapses
leading to an explosion of crime and violence and a mass exodus of
refugees.
25. Haiti: Collapse of UN-sponsored peace talks leads to further violence and repression by military leading to mass exodus of refugees.
Implications for regional stability including Dependent Territories. Refugees in Cayman Islands.
Implications for regional stability including UK Dependent Territories. Commercial interests (Shell). UN resource implications.
Growing popular discontent. Unrest in armed forces. Increase in boat people leaving.
Haitian army and hardline politicians renege on agreement. Increase in human rights violations/ boat people.
Close monitoring of situation. Readiness to aid transition to post-communist government when time comes.
Close monitoring of situation. Contingency arrangements for refugees in DTS.
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