9. Kashmir: serious rift in Indo-Pakistani relations, leading to hostilities.
10. Cyprus: violence arising out of frustration at lack of settlement and/or provoked by
rejectionists
on both sides.
11. Hong Kong: Chinese
interference undermines
international
confidence leading to collapse of banking system/large-scale emigration/riots in the streets.
12. Cambodia: peace plan breaks down.
(a diminishing risk).
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Significant economic political and
commercial interests especially in India. Also large communities from both countries in the UK which could react to hostilities there.
Sovereign Base Areas, guarantor power.
Direct until 1 July 1997 when HMG would
come under pressure b bail out banking system, and to cope with massive immigration pressures.
Costs of UNTAC. Possible involvement in civil war through UN.
Breakdown of Indo-Pak political talks; collapse of democracy in Pakistan; troop
movements and preparations in either country; advent to power of BJP in India.
Lack of settlement, then frustration at lack of international interest: or outline agreement deliberately being jeopardised by rejectionists on one or both sides.
Sharply deteriorating relationship with Chinese eg following upheaval in China and emergence of hard-line leadership. A
Hang Sen/ FUNCIPEC rift and/or serious Khmer Rouge advances.
Little prospect of quick resolution to the dispute, but we are urging both sides to develop a dialogue, and would step up our tempo if the temperature rises.
Actively assisting UNSG's efforts to help secure an agreement acceptable to both sides.
Cabinet Office has coordinated contingency plans for dealing with immigration; monetary arrangements for coping with banking crisis; garrison for civil unrest.
UNTAC proceeding with peace plan: mandate ends in August: phased withdrawal of UN staff ends in December.
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