CONFIDENTIAL
14. Saudi Arabia: Political and/or solvency crisis. Either could provoke the other.
15. Nigeria: Military fail to resolve political crisis; civil unrest; ethnic divisions spread in army; descent towards civil war.
Major: jobs, especially aerospace dependence on Al Yamamah. Destabilisation of Gulf states.
Major: £600m exports; £1.3 billion investment; key Nigerian role in stabilising Liberia/Sierra Leone.
Hope it does not happen until Al Yamamah paid for. Watch for warning signs (assassination of King Fahd; market unease at Saudi borrowing; religious fundamentalism turning to political radicalism).
Measures aimed at Nigerian
military; close co-ordination with US and EC.
CONFIDENTIAL
5