CONFIDENTIAL
* In Africa, Somalia has entered the crisis foreseen in the March scenario. Lack of direct British interests keep it on the "watch-list" rather than that of primary crises. Agreement on election dates in South Africa has made the crisis scenario there somewhat less likely, but there is a long way to go. Two other African crisis scenarios (in Kenya and Gambia) have been dropped from the "watch-list". But there has been one major addition: Nigeria. Even if the worst scenario envisaged in the paper - descent into civil war does not occur, a prolonged period of instability and introversion would make more likely the crisis scenarios for Liberia and Sierra Leone, where Nigeria's stabilising role is crucial.
* The probability of a crisis in Gibraltar has increased.
* So has the likelihood of a crisis between Guatemala and Belize following Serrano's failed autogolpe and Price's loss of the Belizean elections to Esquivel.
Policy Planning Staff July 1993
CONFIDENTIAL