H HÙNG KUN.
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CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL
Legco Attitudes
10. There is much talks and speculation in the corridors of the LegCo building these days about what should happen in the event of a breakdown in the talks; whether and when the Governor should table his 1992 proposals, his 1993 proposals or some other version of his proposals; and how LegCo would vote in each scenario. The permutations are complicated and merit a letter in their own right. They are in any case matters which are more appropriately dealt with in exchanges between you and the Governor. But for what it is worth, my impressions of the current state of LegCo on all this are:
(a) within Legco, the voting strength of the "conservatives" matches that of the "democrats", The balance of power is held by the "independents", who are not a homogeneous group, but whose members are now swinging towards the conservative end of the spectrum. In this connection I enclose a table given to me by Martin Barrow which sets out the various allegiances very clear: 23 conservatives (15 Liberals, 1 DAB and 7 conservative independents); 23 democrats (13 UDHK, 4 Meeting Point, 1 Democratic Foundation, 1 ADPL and 4 liberal independents); and 10 genuine independents the so called Breakfast Group Independents.
(b) if the Governor were to table his 1992 proposals, most if not all the democrats would support them, but this would fall short of a majority. It now seems clear that the Breakfast Group Independents would not join the democrats. Many amendments would be tabled, none of which would be likely to secure a majority.
(c) the "moderate" democrats (Meeting Point, Frederick Fung) would support the 1992 proposals, at least initially, although they may put forward amendments. But privately they expect, and may even hope, to see a much diluted version (let us call it "1993 minus") to emerge at the end of the day.
(d) UDHK and their close associates (Anna, Christine and Emily swear that they would never support the 1993 proposals, let alone 1993 minus. One view is that, faced with the choice between a diluted package and no package at all, most if not all UDHK and ACE would at the end of the day swing behind the best that was available. But Martin Lee (and other UDHK members) have insisted to us that nothing less than the 1992 proposals would ever be acceptable. As recorded in paragraph 9 above, Martin Lee's present view is that in the event of a further substantial dilution of the 1993 package, LegCo should be dissolved and fresh elections held on the basis of existing legislation.
(e) the Breakfast Group Independents would be more comfortable with 1993 or 1993 minus; and it could not be excluded that the Liberals would vote for 1993 minus, if not 1993.
CONFIDENTIAL AND PERSONAL