15-JUN-1993 14:16
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837
P.18
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
3416
THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS
By Montaperto, Ronald N.; Terrill, Ross; Eirinberg, Keith; Zhang, Weiguo, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, US, 73 P. (1992)
China's political evolution in the 1990s is discussed and the domestic and international implications, especially for the USA, are assessed. Domestic policies will probably emphasize pragmatic pursuit of economic development, with diminishing regard for ideology. External policies will support domestic economic priorities, with Beijing relying mainly on diplomacy to avoid confrontation, defuse conflicts, and expand access to markets and technology. Military or coercive methods will be employed only as regards issues such as sovereignty or territorial integrity. The nuclear deterrent will be modernised and the army will seek to acquire the capability or fighting local wars of limited duration, including the possibility to project force beyond China's national boundaries. The USA could adopt a combination of three approaches. (1) Focus on competitive dimensions and implement a policy of isolation and containment, via a structure including bilateral alliances, a regional security regime, and a series of ad hoc agreements that would constrain China's efforts to expand its regional role. Within the region there is enough suspicion about China's longer-term goals to support this approach. (2) Reinforce bilateral cooperation with China. Although experience suggests that the Chinese are sceptical, it can be argued that the evolution of the international system is such that the leadership could be persuaded of the benefit of such an arrangement. (3) Integrate China more closely into the regional and global strategic systems. Chinese attitudes to APAC and ASEAN suggest that the leadership is aware of the benefits of such a course.
GD: Country Studies; International Relations
SD: Geopolitical Developments; Political Aspects; Economic Aspects
GE: China; United States
LO: The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, US
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OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME