15-JUN-1993
14:15
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837
P.15
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
2759
CHINA (ENERGY)
By International Energy Agency, in: Global Energy: The Changing Outlook, OECD, Paris, FR, Chapter 5, PP. 107-117 (1992)
China's energy situation over 1989-2005 is assessed, assuming economic growth averaging 6.3% p.a. and inflation below 10% p.a.. Total energy demand is expected to grow at 3.4% p.a. (5.8% p.a. over 1970-1989); total primary energy supply is projected to be 1102 million tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2005 versus 649 Mtoe in 1989. Projected growth in total primary energy production is 3.1% p.a., reaching 1112 Mtoe in 2005 (679 Mtoe in 1989). Coal will represent 75% of the total throughout the projection period, with production rising from 517 Mtoe in 1989 to 850 Mtoe in 2005. Around 50% will continue to be produced by small, locally run mines. Reserves are estimated at 170 billion tons, but expansion could be hampered by poor infrastructure. Oil demand is projected to grow at 3.6% p.a., from 114 Mtoe in 1989 to 201 Mtos in 2005. Its share of total energy consumption is expected to remain around 18%. Oil consumption is officially discouraged for power generation, but use in industry, particularly petrochemicals, is expected to expand. The refinery system is likely to come under increasing pressure as demand shifts away from fuel oil towards petrochemical feedstocks and gasoline and diesel fuel. Projected oil production in 2005 is 205 Mtoe, versus 140 Mtoe in 1989 (2.4% p.a. increase) but meeting this volume will require substantial investment in distribution infrastructures. Projected natural gas consumption in 2005 is 33 Mtoe (12 Mtoe in 1989); for hydro the figures are 24 and 10 Mtoe. Projected electricity production in 2005 is 1503 TWh (569 TWh in 1989), with coal's share rising from 69% to 75%, oil falling from 11% to 5%.
GD: Energy; Country Studies
SD: Energy Balance; Energy Mix; Coal; Natural Gas; Petroleum; Hydropower; Electricity GE: China
LO: OECD, Publication Service, Paris, FR
(Ref. no.: 61 92 01 1)
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