15-JUN-1993
14:15
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837
P.14
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
2712
2000 AD: WATER ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS OF CHINA
By Guogang, Han; Fenglan, Jiang; Jimin, Yan, in: International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 18, No. 8/9/10, PP. 174-179 (1991)
Possible water shortages in China due to population increase, industrial expansion, and urbanisation are evaluated. Per capita surface water resources are expected to decline from 2700 m3 in 1991 to 2160 in 2000. The amount of untreated polluted water flowing into rivers is estimated to rise from 34.1 billion tonnes in 1980 to between 70 and 80 billion tonnes by 2000. Resulting economic losses in 2000 are estimated at 23 billion yuan. The number and area of lakes is declining, while pollution is getting worse. For example, of the 1066 lakes in Hubei province in 1949, only 326 still exist and their area has declined by 75%. Agricultural sector water demand is projected to rise from 419 billion m3 in 1980 (87% of total demand) to $15 billion m3 in 2000 (82% of total demand). Reducing agricultural consumption is considered essential. Most irrigation canals are not protected against seepage, which often results in losses of over 40%. Irrigation is by wild flooding in most fields, requiring 30% to 70% more water than more efficient techniques. As a consequence of increasing urbanisation, urban water demand is projected to rise from 6.7 billion m3 in 1980 to 20 billion m3 in 2000. Forty percent of urban drinking water supplies are considered sub-standard, and projections suggest that 450 of the 600 biggest cities will be short of water by 2000. Industrial sector water demand is projected to rise from $2.3 billion m3 in 1980 to 100 billion m3 in 2000. Improving reutilization ratios could greatly reduce industrial consumption, but water only accounts for 1% of production costs.
GD: Natural Resources; Environment; Country Studies
SD: Water Resources; Water Pollution; Environmental Degradation; Supply; Demand; Irrigation;
Towns; Agriculture; Industry
GE: China
LO: INSEAD, Library, Fontainebleau, FR
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OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME