CONFIDENTIAL
055416
MDTTAN 4505
BEEN NO SMOKING GUN, THERE WAS CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE THAT THE CHINESE HAD SENT MISSILES TO PAKISTAN. CLARK HAD RAISED THIS IN PEKING DURING HIS VISIT WITH COMMERCE SECRETARY FRANKLIN IN DECEMBER. THE CHINESE HAD DENIED SENDING THE MISSILES, BUT, AT THE SAME TIME, HAD REITERATED THAT THEY DID NOT ACCEPT THE U.S. INTERPRETATION OF MTCR OBLIGATIONS. (THE CHINESE CLAIM THE M11
FALLS OUTSIDE THE 300 KILOMETRE RANGE TO WHICH MTCR APPLIES. THE AMERICANS ARGUE THAT IT COMES SO CLOSE THAT, IF IT HAD A LIGHTER PAYLOAD IT COULD EASILY REACH 300 KILOMETRES.) NSC SAID THE AMERICANS HAD JUST SENT INSTRUCTIONS TO THEIR EMBASSY TO MAKE A FURTHER DEMARCHE, WHICH WOULD MENTION THE SPECIFIC VESSEL WHICH THEY THOUGHT MIGHT HAVE DELIVERED SUSPECT EQUIPMENT TO PAKISTAN. IF STRONGER EVIDENCE CAME TO LIGHT, STATE SAID THEY WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER SANCTIONS ON CHINA, BUT COULD NOT SAY WHAT SUCH SANCTIONS MIGHT INCLUDE.
5.
ON HUMAN RIGHTS, NSC SAID THE PICTURE WAS NOT ENTIRELY BLEAK. SENATOR BOREN HAD LEFT A LIST OF HUMAN RIGHTS CASES WITH THE
CHINESE ON HIS RECENT VISIT. THE CHINESE HAD TALKED ABOUT THEM TO
SENATOR JOHNSTON ON HIS SUBSEQUENT VISIT. SINCE THE CHINESE RARELY DISCUSSED SUCH LISTS, NSC THOUGHT THIS CONSTITUTED GLACIAL PROGRESS. NSC SPECULATED THAT THE CHINESE MIGHT BE PLANNING TO DO
SOMETHING ON HUMAN RIGHTS TO HELP CLINTON.
6. NEITHER STATE NOR NSC KNEW HOW THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION WOULD HANDLE MEN. IT SEEMED LIKELY THAT CLINTON WOULD LOOK FOR A FUDGE -. RATHER THAN SET TOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RENEWAL IN 1993. NSC THOUGHT
CLINTON WOULD TRY TO AVOID ANY CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION ON MEN.
HE MIGHT THEREFORE SET CONDITIONS FOR 1994 BY WAY OF A PRESIDENTIAL
STATEMENT, OR EXECUTIVE ORDER. IT WAS JUST POSSIBLE THAT ANY FORM OF EXPLICIT CONDITIONALITY COULD BE AVOIDED: SINCE UNLIKE BUSH CLINTON WOULD PROBABLY NOT VETO LEGISLATION SETTING CONDITIONS, THE CHINESE MIGHT BE PREPARED TO DO MORE TO HELP HIM HEAD OFF
CONGRESSIONAL PRESSURE. IF SO HE MIGHT BE ABLE TO POINT TO IMPROVEMENTS IN CHINESE BEHAVIOUR, AND RENEW MFN.
SIGNED S D PATTISON
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