Hong Kong Government Office 香港政府駐英辦事處
6 Grafton Street London WIX 3LB
Assessment of the impact on
the Hong Kong economy of China's exports
losing their MFN status in the United States
If China loses its MFN status in the United States,
there are likely to be:
1
a reduction by 34% to 47% of HK$47-66 billion
(US$6.1-8.6 billion) worth of Hong Kong's re-
exports from China to the United States;
together with other related trade flows, a reduction by 6% to 9% or of HK$118-166 billion
(US$15-21 billion) worth of Hong Kong's overall
trade;
a loss in Hong Kong of around HK$16-23 billion (US$2.1-2.9 billion) in income and around 49 000
to 69 000 in jobs as a direct impact; GDP growth
rate likely to be curtailed by 2.2 to 3.1 percentage points or by around
around two-fifths to
three-fifths from its trend rate (of 5% in real
terms) in the year of incidence;
a further loss in income and jobs if China cuts
back on its imports as a result;
adverse effect
on
manufacturing
significant
investment ventures and other production
arrangements by Hong Kong and foreign companies (including US companies) in China; Hong Kong's
role as gateway to China likely to be undermined
considerably, thus affecting longer-term growth
potential and business confidence in Hong Kong.
Tel: 071-499 9821 Fax: 071-493 1964 071-495 5033