RESTRICTED
114233
MDTTAN 9286
THE BAR PRETTY LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
►
LORD READILY ACCEPTED THAT IT WOULD BE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE TO MIX UP MFN RENEWAL WITH THE GOVERNOR'S DEMOCRATISATION PROPOSALS. ON THE OTHER HAND, FOLEY (THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE), WHO WANDERED UP AT THIS POINT, SUGGESTED THAT THERE COULD BE PRESSURE FROM CONGRESS TO INCLUDE CHINESE REACTIONS TO THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS AS PART OF THE CONDITIONALITY PACKAGE. BUT HE DID NOT THINK SUCH PRESSURE NEED CAUSE THE ADMINISTRATION INSUPERABLE PROBLEMS.
VIETNAM
LORD
1
5. I ASKED WHETHER PROGRESS WAS LIKELY ON NORMALISATION.
SAID THAT WE WERE CLEARLY HEADING IN THAT DIRECTION. THE ONLY QUESTION WAS HOW LONG IT WOULD TAKE THE ADMINISTRATION TO GET THERE. I WONDERED WHETHER, GIVEN HIS VIETNAM WAR RECORD, NORMALISATION WOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON THAN IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN FOR PRESIDENT BUSH. LORD DID NOT THINK THIS NEED BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. HE THOUGHT THAT OPINION IN THE COUNTRY TOWARDS VIETNAM HAD MOVED VERY CONSIDERABLY IN RECENT YEARS. HE DOUBTED WHETHER THE MIA LOBBY WOULD BE AS STRONGLY OPPOSED AS IT HAD BEEN IN THE PAST. FOLEY AGREED. HE DID NOT THINK THAT CONGRESS WOULD OPPOSE NORMALISATION: ON THE CONTRARY, A GROWING NUMBER ACTIVELY FAVOURED IT. BUT HE WONDERED WHETHER THERE WAS SOME HALF-WAY HOUSE, SHORT OF NORMALISATION, THAT WOULD ENABLE THE ADMINISTRATION TO TEST THE OPINION IN THE U.S. NEITHER HE NOR LORD, HOWEVER, WERE ABLE TO IDENTIFY ONE. LORD WAS CONFIDENT THAT
IN ANY EVENT THERE WAS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT NORMALISATION WOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.
CAMBODIA
-
6. I SAID THAT WE WERE ANXIOUS TO SEE THE ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE AND
THEN TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE UN PRESENCE. WE DID NOT WANT TO SEE THE CURRENT, VERY EXPENSIVE, OPERATION CONTINUE INDEFINITELY. LORD AGREED. BUT HE ADDED THAT, HAVING INVESTED SO MUCH IN THE PROCESS, IT WOULD BE A PITY IF A REDUCTION IN THE UN EFFORT WERE TO PUT WHAT HAD BEEN ACHIEVED SO FAR AT RISK. SO, WHILE THE AMERICANS WERE AS ANXIOUS AS WE ARE TO SEE THE EXPENSES REDUCED, HE SUGGESTED THAT THEY MIGHT BE MORE PREPARED TO CONTEMPLATE A SIGNIFICANT UN PRESENCE IN CAMBODIA AFTER THE ELECTIONS. ON THE LATTER, HIS WORRY SEEMED TO BE NOT SO MUCH THE PROSPECT OF KR GAINS BUT THAT SIHANOUK WOULD FOR HIS OWN REASONS SUBSEQUENTLY INVITE THEM INTO THE
COALITION. THAT WOULD MAKE CONTINUED U.S. SUPPORT VERY DIFFICULT.