Hong Kong Government Office 香港政府駐英辦事處
6 Grafton Street London WIX 3LB
Assessment of the impact on
the Hong Kong_economy of China's exports
losing their MFN status in the United States
If China loses its MFN status in the United States,
there are likely to be:
a reduction by 34% to 47% of HK$47-66 billion
(US$6.1-8.6 billion) worth of Hong Kong's re-
exports from China to the United States;
together with other related trade flows, a reduction by 6% to 9% or of HK$118-166 billion
(US$15-21 billion) worth of Hong Kong's overall
trade;
a loss in Hong Kong of around HK$16-23 billion (US$2.1-2.9 billion) in income and around 49 000
to 69 000 in jobs as a direct impact; GDP growth
rate likely to be curtailed by 2.2 to 3.1 percentage points or by around two-fifths to
three-fifths from its trend rate (of 5% in real
terms) in the year of incidence;
a further loss in income and jobs if China cuts
back on its imports as a result;
adverse effect on
manufacturing
significant
investment ventures and other production arrangements by Hong Kong and foreign companies (including US companies) in China; Hong Kong's
role as gateway to China likely to be undermined considerably, thus affecting longer-term growth
potential and business confidence in Hong Kong.
Tel: 071-499 9821
Fax: 071-493 1964 071-495 5033