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MDHIAN 8938
HAS BEEN SOME PROGRESS, AND MORE IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS MID-LATE MAY. PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED: IV) BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT PROGRESS BY LATE MAY WILL BE SUCH AS TO MAKE UNCONDITIONAL MFN RENEWAL POSSIBLE. SO CONDITIONS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE ATTACHED FOR A FURTHER YEAR'S RENEWAL TO JUNE 1994: V) THE ADMINISTRATION
SHOULD TRY TO GET CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS ON MFN HELD IN ABEYANCE DURING MAY WHILE SENSITIVE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE CHINESE ARE UNDER WAY: VI) FOR TACTICAL REASONS, IT IS BETTER NOT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
NEGOTIATING APPROACH OF USING MFN AS LEVERAGE.
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4. STATE SAID THE KEY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY WERE THE NATURE OF THE
CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY THE STANDARD WHICH THE CHINESE WOULD HAVE
TO MEET AND THE VEHICLE BY WHICH THEY WOULD BE ESTABLISHED (CONGRESSIONAL LEGISLATION, EXECUTIVE ORDER OR SIMPLY A STATEMENT OF POLICY) NO DECISIONS HAVE YET BEEN TAKEN ON THESE ISSUES.
AS WE HAVE REPORTED, THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD PREFER TO KEEP CONTROL OF POLICY THEMSELVES AND AVOID LEGISLATION. NSC CONFIRMED
THIS AGAIN TO US ON 28 APRIL. BUT THE ADMINISTRATION ARE BEGINNING
TO BE WORRIED THAT THE MITCHELL/PELOSI BILL MIGHT GATHER MOMENTUM
AND CREATE THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONLY VEHICLE FOR CONDITIONALITY
IS LEGISLATION.
5.
AS THE DATE FOR RENEWAL (3 JUNE) NEARS, THERE IS GROWING INTEREST IN THE SUBJECT ON THE HILL. LAST WEEK PELOSI AND MITCHELL
INTRODUCED THEIR CONDITIONALITY BILL (CLOSELY MODELLED ON LAST YEARS). THIS WOULD WITHDRAW MEN FOR PRODUCTS OF STATE-OWNED AND STATE-OPERATED ENTERPRISES AFTER JUNE 1994 UNLESS THE PRESIDENT CAN
REPORT THAT THE CHINESE HAD MET CONDITIONS WHICH INCLUDE ALLOWING UNRESTRICTED EMIGRATION, AND TAKING EFFECTIVE ACTION TO PREVENT THE EXPORT TO THE U.S. OF PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED BY PRISON LABOUR. THE PRESIDENT WILL ALSO HAVE TO REPORT THAT THE CHINESE HAVE MADE QUOTE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS UNQUOTE IN LIFTING RESTRICTIONS ON FREEDOM OF RELIGIOUS BELIEF IN CHINA AND TIBET, CEASING TO THREATEN THE SURVIVAL OF TIBETAN CULTURE, CEASING UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES, ADHERING TO MTCR GUIDELINES, ADHERING TO THE JOINT DECLARATION ON HONG KONG, COOPERATING WITH THE U.S. ON POW/MIA'S, CEASING TO JAM THE VOA AND PROVIDING ACCESS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS TO PRISONERS,
TRIALS AND PLACES OF DETENTION.
6. STATE TELL US THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WERE CONTENT TO HAVE THIS LEGISLATION INTRODUCED. THEY HAVE BEEN IN CLOSE TOUCH WITH PELOSI AND MITCHELL, WHO ARE NOT INCLINED TO PUSH
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