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011052 MDHIAN 6549
5. MOODY'S CONSIDER THE THIRD ONE, THE CRISIS SCENARIO, AT LEAST LIKELY AND ARGUE THAT THE SECOND ONE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
ASSESSMENT.
6. WHILE ACCEPTING HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC STRENGTH, MOODY'S THINKING HAS BEEN STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEGREE OF CHINA'S INTERVENTIONS IN HONG KONG BEFORE AND AFTER 97, CHINA'S ASSERTION OF ITS SOVEREIGNTY OVER HONG KONG AND THE EXTENT OF CHINA'S COMMITMENT TO THE ASSURANCE IN JD AND BL REGARDING THE AUTONOMY OF HONG KONG.
7
.
THERE ARE SOME FACTUAL ERRORS IN THE REPORT. FOR EXAMPLE, OUR PROPOSALS FOR THE 1994-95 ELECTIONS DO NOT INCLUDE A NEW INCREASE IN DIRECTLY ELECTED LEGCO SEATS. WE HAVE POINTED THIS OUT TO MOODY'S BUT THEY CHOSE TO KEEP TO THEIR OWN VERSION OF THE EVENT.
8.
9.
IN HONG KONG, OUR LINE TO TAKE ON THE REPORT IS AS FOLLOWS:
(A)
(B)
(C)
DISTANCE OURSELVES FROM THE REPORT AS THIS IS A REPORT PREPARED AT MOODY'S INITIATIVE AND NOT AT OUR REQUEST: EMPHASISE THE STRENGTH OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS (FIRM TREND OF 5 PERCENT REAL GROWTH IN GDP: STRONG CURRENCY: 12TH LARGEST FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES IN 1991: AND HEALTHY STOCK MARKET 28 PER CENT INCREASE IN HANG SENG INDEX IN 1992 AND CURRENTLY 27 PER CENT INCREASE OVER BEGINNING OF 1993): AND REBUT, IF NECESSARY, MOODY'S CONCERN OVER OUR
CO-OPERATION WITH CHINA AND CHINA'S INTENTION TO ABIDE BY ITS COMMITMENTS IN THE JD AND BL.
THE REPORT IS, ON THE OTHER HAND, NOT TOTALLY UNHELPFUL AND THE CONCERN EXPRESSED BY A THIRD PARTY, AND AN INFLUENTIAL ONE, OVER CHINA'S MEDDLING IN HONG KONG'S AFFAIRS COULD HAVE A SALUTARY EFFECT VIS A VIS CHINA.
PATTEN
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