AWM0001
NOTE FOR RECORD
моноћу.
MB
HK Economy
ja,
сс/нко
(Whitney) 29 Sept 1993
a FED
(L.B.5)
45
à
Copies to
ние
new
Mr Elston Mr King
Mr Milne
Mr Dobney
a file: Chittinara: Ms Mills
China Man Mr Orchard
Mr Lund
Mr Lane (FCO)
Mr Durrance (DTI)
Mr Muckersie (ECGD)
Mr Hope (ECGD)
Mr Riley (ECGD)
ESG MEETING 28 SEPTEMBER: CHINA AND HONG KONG
1 The meeting discussed the forecasts circulated by Mr Lund and Mr
Orchard.
CHINA
GENERAL ISSUES
MKB 090/1
1.00 1993
2
DATA - Mr Lund explained that problems with the data from IFS and WDT for 1992 meant that the capital account and debt flows did not add up. He had adjusted the net short term debt position accordingly in order to balance the accounts. Mr King noted that this change had the effect of reducing the short term debt level shown in 1992 and that this would have an impact upon the ratios watched by ECGD. Mr Lund confirmed, however, that this adjustment only took place in 1992 and did not affect the rest of the
forecast.
3 OVERVIEW Mr Lund and Mr Orchard explained that it had been assumed that the current reform process would be broadly maintained and was moderately successful but would continue to be marked by strong internal economic cycles (although these were assumed to diminish in magnitude in the later part of the forecast). The forecast did not make an explicit assumption about the timing of Deng's death nor who would succeed him. Mr Lane commented that it was extremely likely that Deng would die during the forecast period. It was very unclear how the succession might take place. There appeared to be three front runners at present (Zhu Rongji,- Jiang Zemin and Li Peng). Previous successions in China had not