psit.hk.PETER
JEB
CONFIDENTIAL
anxieties in the business community, Hong Kong's economy remains robust, with 5.5% growth forecast for this year.
It should soon become clear whether the Chinese are willing to finesse the question of participation by Hong Kong representatives in the British team, and therefore allow
talks to start. If they are, the talks themselves will be
tough, and the Chinese will try to spin them out as long as possible. Our interest is to establish quickly whether the Chinese are prepared to talk seriously about arrangements
for the 1995 elections, and to give assurances that all
those elected in 1995 can in practice continue as members of
LegCo beyond 1997 (the "through train"). There is some
evidence that the Chinese intend to use provisions in the Basic Law requiring members of LegCo to "uphold the Basic
Law" as a means of weeding out Martin Lee and other liberals
in 1997. We will not want the talks to get bogged down: the Governor wishes to get the legislative process underway in time for LegCo to enact legislation by the summer recess.
But our tactical handling of the issue will need to take account of the strong community pressure in Hong Kong to
give talks every chance of succeeding in the hope of
returning to a cooperative relationship with China, and the
reluctance of some members of LegCo to debate a bill in parallel with Sino/British talks.
The Governor's next official visit to London will be in
November. The Prime Minister has agreed to speak at a
conference in the City, which the Governor will also be
attending, on Investment in Hong Kong.
(Private Secretary)
CONFIDENTIAL