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Statements by Chinese leaders indicate that they are still willing to have talks with us (although there is no sign of a change in their position on substance), and that introduction of the draft legislation into LegCo is the step which would make talks impossible. But they are unlikely to take the
initiative to resume official contact. There is therefore a
(narrow) window for us to make a renewed effort to resolve the issue of Hong Kong Government representation and get talks underway. Once LegCo resumes after the Easter recess, pressure from the liberals for the legislation to be introduced is likely to grow unless agreement on talks has been reached by then.
7.
The arguments pro and con the two options are finely
balanced:
(i)
The advantages of holding talks are as follows:
If we could reach with China an understanding on electoral issues, that would ensure continuity for LegCo through 1997, and restore cooperation on
other Hong Kong issues. Even if we did not reach
an understanding, the Chinese side would have been
seen to influence the process. That might
moderate their reaction to the eventual
legislation passed by LegCo, particularly if this had been amended in ways they liked during its
passage. Holding talks on these issues might
itself be enough to unblock other work over Hong
Kong, eg technical issues in the JLG, and would
probably stave off any Chinese plans to retaliate
against British commercial interests. The
community in Hong Kong are in favour of trying the talks option.
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Hongkongissuesahead/BRIEFS/NJH