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Statements by Chinese leaders indicate that they are still willing to have talks with us (although there is no sign of a change in their position on substance), and that introduction of the draft legislation into LegCo is the step which would- make talks impossible. But they are unlikely to take the initiative to resume official contact. There is therefore a
(narrow) window for us to make a renewed effort to resolve the issue of Hong Kong Government representation and get talks underway. Once LegCo resumes after the Easter recess, pressure from the liberals for the legislation to be introduced is likely to grow unless agreement on talks has been reached by then.
7. The arguments pro and con the two options are finely
balanced:
why?
(i) The advantages of holding talks are as follows:
If we could reach with China an understanding on electoral issues, that would ensure continuity for LegCo through 1997 and restore cooperation on other Hong Kong issues. Even if we did not reach
an understanding, the Chinese side would have been seen to influence the process. That might moderate their reaction to the eventual legislation passed by LegCo, particularly if this had been amended in ways they liked during its passage. Holding talks on these issues might itself be enough to unblock other work over Hong Kong, eg technical issues in the JLG, and would probably stave off any Chinese plans to retaliate against British commercial interests. The community in Hong Kong are in favour of trying the talks option.
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