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the spectrum of possible outcomes, and would be satisfactory for us, particularly if coupled with a return to cooperation on other issues. But it is probably only attainable if LegCo watered down
the Governor's proposals to the point where they
met most Chinese demands. The outcome would then
probably be very difficult for us to justify as
meeting our objectives of free and fair
elections.
They could decide to confine the dispute with
us to electoral issues, and therefore to hold new
LegCo elections in 1997, but allow cooperation to
resume in other areas. The Chinese have an interest in a degree of cooperation with us eg particularly in the economic/financial areas, both to keep influence over our decisions
pre-1997, and to protect their economic stake in
Hong Kong. It is not the way they have chosen to conduct the dispute so far: they have already spread it to include most aspects of our dealings
on Hong Kong and (recently) the commercial
relationship with the UK. The tone of the NPC
was strongly nationalistic on Hong Kong, and this
will have made it harder for Chinese officials to
unblock other aspects of the relationship, in the absence of a satisfactory settlement on
democracy. They would probably seek a high price for doing so, including a tighter grip on
pre-1997 decisions over such issues as the
airport, and contracts and franchises. And they would have to decide whether to boycott/disrupt
the 1995 elections, or encourage their allies to
participate.
Hongkongissuesahead/BRIEFS/NJH
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