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4. I ALSO THINK THAT THE TABLING OF LEGISLATION WOULD REDUCE THE PROSPECT OF THE CHINESE ENGAGING IN CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE WITH US. ON AN OPTIMISTIC INTERPRETATION OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, CHINESE OFFICIALS ARE PROBABLY DIVIDED ABOUT WHETHER TO SEEK A WAY FORWARD THROUGH DISCUSSIONS OR TO CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A HUMILIATING BRITISH CLIMBDOWN AS A PRECONDITION FOR ANY TALKS. TABLING UNAMENDED LEGISLATION WOULD PROBABLY STRENGTHEN THE HAND OF THOSE WHO WANT CONFRONTATION. DESPITE WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING PUBLICLY AND TO THE CHINESE, IT WOULD BE SEIZED ON AS EVIDENCE THAT WE INTENDED TO PRESS ON WITH THE ORIGINAL PROPOSALS REGARDLESS OF CHINESE OBJECTIONS. WHETHER TABLING AMENDED LEGISLATION WOULD HAVE A SIMILAR EFFECT WOULD DEPEND ON THE EXTENT AND THRUST OF THE AMENDMENTS, BUT IT COULD/COULD BE INTERPRETED BY MORE CONCILIATORY SPIRITS IN A FAVOURABLE LIGHT, AS INDICATING THAT THE ORIGINAL PROPOSALS HAD BEEN WITHDRAWN. IN EITHER CASE THERE ARE RISKS: THE DIFFERENCE IS ONE OF DEGREE.

5. AS SEEN FROM HERE, PROLONGING DISCUSSION IN EXCO ARTIFICIALLY WOULD HAVE UNCERTAIN ADVANTAGES. IT COULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE CHINESE TO TAKE UP OUR OFFER OF TALKS WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS. BUT THE ACT OF TABLING THE DRAFT LEGISLATION, WHEN IT OCCURRED, WOULD PROVIDE THEM WITH A READY-MADE PRETEXT NOT TO GO AHEAD WITH ANY TALKS WHICH HAD BEEN ARRANGED, OR TO BREAK THEM OFF IF THEY HAD STARTED.

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SIR J COLES

MR HUM MASEFIELD

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