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027406 MDADAN 7184
MAY NOW BELIEVE THEY CAN ACHIEVE THEIR OBJECTIVES WITHOUT A FURTHER ESCALATION OF THE STRUGGLE CAMPAIGN AT THIS STAGE. THEY ALWAYS PREFER CO-OPERATION (ON THEIR TERMS) TO CONFRONTATION AND PREFER TO WEAR A SMILING FACE IN THEIR PROPAGANDA IN HONG KONG. THEY MAY FEEL THAT THEY HAVE FLEXED THEIR MUSCLES ENOUGH FOR THE TIME BEING, REMINDING US AND HONG KONG OPINION OF HOW DIFFICULT LIFE COULD BECOME IF WE FAIL TO COME TO TERMS WITH PEKING. IF SO, THEY CAN NOW WAIT A LITTLE TO SEE WHETHER THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS WIL INDEED BE SUBSTANTIALLY AMENDED AND WHETHER WE SEEK TO DISCUSS SUCH
AMENDMENTS WITH THEM.
4. THERE ARE OF COURSE OTHER MORE SINISTER POSSIBILITIES, E.G.
(A) THAT LU PING SEES THE OPENING OF CHANNELS WITH THE GOVERNOR AS A WAY OF TRAPPING HIM: OR
(B) THAT THE CHINESE HAVE DECIDED THAT IT WOULD SUIT THEM FOR LEGCO TO VOTE THROUGH THE PROPOSALS UNAMENDED (LEAVING THEM WITH A FREER HAND TO DENOUNCE THEM WHOLESALE AND DERAIL ALL BRITISH-INFLUENCED THROUGH TRAINS) AND THEY THINK LEGCO MORE LIKELY TO BE BOLD IF THE STRUGGLE CAMPAIGN IS MUTED. BUT FLAGGING THESE POSSIBILITIES WOULD LENGTHEN THE PAPER, AND THE MOST LIKELY INTERPRETATION REMAINS THAT LU PING WANTS TO REVERT TO A CO-OPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP CON CHINESE TERMS) AND IS NOW MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS.
5. WE AGREE WITH THE SECOND HALF OF PARA 6.
6. PARA 13 LAST SENTENCE MENTIONS THE NEXT MEETING OF FOREIGN
MINISTERS DUE IN THE SPRING: YOU MIGHT LIKE TO PUT DOWN A MARKER OF
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CHINESE MIGHT SEEK TO IMPOSE UNACCEPTABLE PRECONDITIONS FOR SUCH A MEETING.
MCLAREN
YYYY
ADVANCE
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