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5.
Qiao gave a very substantial debut speech to the NPC Standing Committee in early April, which suggested the NPC could become more active and assertive under his leadership. It is too fanciful to regard him as a Thomas Becket' figure who will use his new role in a way that challenges those who appointed him. Andropov is less so. As security chief, he may have the insight to
A comparison with understand China's problems and the strength and intellect to take steps necessary to resolve them. Qiao is likely to play a major role in the post-Deng succession arrangements, probably as kingmaker but possibly as king.
6.
It is worth recalling the meeting between Mrs. Thatcher and Gorbachev before the latter's succession (and the role that Andropov played in Gorbachev's rise). An invitation to Qiao would be timely. Other Foreign Ministries may well have the same idea.
Peter Clark
Far East Section
Research & Analysis Dept
OAB 2/126
210 6217
22 April 1993
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