CODE RAD
Dr. Bristow-Smith
FED
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Mr Davil
Interest
Reference.
22/4.
QIAO SHI
1.
We recently discussed the idea of inviting Qiao Shi to Britain in his new capacity of Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress ie as China's leading parliamentarian’. There is a precedent in the invitation to Qiao's predecessor Wan Li in 1990. (Wan pulled out of the visit at the last moment on health grounds and it was never reinstated, although the Chinese did express a desire to rescedule). This minute gives a brief assessment of Qiao's current political standing.
2. Qiao joined the Party's leading body, the Politburo Standing Committee, in 1987 and has been in charge of security and legal matters from the mid-80s. He lost some of his leading positions in these fields (Secretary of the key Party Political and Legal Commission and Secretary of the Central Committee Discipline Inspection Commission) in 1992 and was made Chairman of the NPC Standing Committee at the recent NPC. There are two basic explanations for the shift in portfolios:
a) that this is a classic case of a leader being marginalised by giving him an important `ceremonial' but essentially insignificant job. The motive behind this would be to remove any potential rivals to the `Jiang Zemin-Li Peng axis', which Deng Xiaoping has ostensibly settled on as the best available basis for future stability.
b) that Qiao's appointment to the NPC position is part of the overall strategy to consolidate the `collective leadership' and his loss of positions to more junior people is part of a normal succession process. Qiao would still be in overall charge of security policy although perhaps with fewer day-to-day duties.
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Those who have
3. I would go for the second explanation. succeeded him at the Political and Legal and Discipline Inspection Commissions are not senior enough to have real authority. This must reside somewhere and Qiao remains the most likely candidate. He has proved his loyalty to Deng.
4. Little is known about Qiao. He came off the fence last year when he was one of the first central leaders to give his strong public backing to Deng's reform push. Despite holding the law and order portfolio, he has not been tainted by Tiananmen as has Li Peng. He did not give strong vocal support to the post-Tiananmen political backlash as did Jiang Zemin. He is the most respected of the leading group amongst intellectuals. Whether deserved or not, he has something of a reputation for being intelligent, cultured and moderate.
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