such an outcome would play into the hands of the hard liners in the Chinese camp (eg Zhou Nan) and benefit their supporters in Hong Kong (T S Lo, Dorothy Liu). The main victims of such an outcome would be the democratic parties, particularly UDHK, but also Meeting Point. They would become marginalised, while power fell into the hands of the most extreme and undemocratic elements in Hong Kong;
- no talks and a stand-off on the 1994/1995 elections would inevitably damage cooperation across the board. Hong Kong’s interests would suffer. The next four years would be extremely grim, not just for big business, but for ordinary people whose livelihood and peace of mind depended on Britain and China managing their relations effectively.
6.
That said, however, Cheung stressed that Meeting Point were not too worried at the prospect of having to get off the British train and get on the Chinese one in 1997. He said this with such emphasis (and Fred Li echoed it to me on 24 March) that I suspect that this was an assurance given to him by Lu Ping (see paragraph 8 below).
1.
Cheung said that while hoping for agreement between Britain and China on the 1994/1995 elections, he was preparing for the worst, and the worst looked increasingly probable. In this context, he wondered whether there was any possibility of reaching some understanding with the Chinese on "limited convergence". Could the two sides find a way of agreeing to differ on the details of the arrangements for the elections, while reiterating their commitment to cooperation in the wider field? He recognised that the political issue lay at the heart of the present difficulties between Britain and China, and that the dispute had become highly personalised. But China had an undiminished need to achieve a smooth transition and arguably could not do so without British cooperation.
Meeting Point and China
8.
At
The background to Cheung's visit to Peking is as follows. an earlier stage, Lu Ping sounded out Cheung as a possible Hong Kong Advisor. But he hesitated before accepting. Then LegCo members of Meeting Point voted for the Governor's package (a crime for which they have not yet been fully forgiven). Cheung went to the UK for several months to pursue his doctoral studies. In his absence, pro-China members of Meeting Point left the organisation. It was made clear that Cheung would no longer be welcome as a Hong Kong Advisor. However since his return to Hong Kong from the UK in December, he has tried to repair relations with Peking. It seems that Zhou Nan is continuing to treat Meeting Point coolly, while Lu Ping seeks to cultivate them as
CONFIDENTIAL