CONFIDENTIAL
following sub-programme baselines (with the change on the pre-PES figures shown in brackets):
£m
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
Total baseline
2308 (0)
2363 (0)
2363 (0)
o/w
Aid Budget
2182 (+5)
2238 (+6)
2232 (0)
Global Environment
8 (0)
8 (0)
8 (0)
Overseas
Superannuation
118 (-5)
117 (-6)
123 (0)
8.
The second option would be to recognise that this line of argument has been successful in securing the relatively good PES outcomes for ODA in 1992 and 1993 but that it is unlikely to take us much further given:
the elapse of time since the Prime Minister made his
commitment;
indications at official level that the Chief Secretary will not budge from his view that PES outcomes since UNCED allow us to present our contributions to the GEF replenishment as "new and additional" - - see his letter of 8 November to the Secretary of State at flag C;
the fact that the extra requirement for the Global Environment Assistance sub-programme could be met by reducing the Aid Budget baselines in 1995/96 and 1996/97 and still leaving them higher than the Aid Budget baselines at the time of UNCED (see detailed table at
flag D), thereby allowing us to claim that the is being met with "new and additional"
commitment
resources.
Under this second scenario, our sub-programme baselines (with the change on the pre-PES figures shown in brackets) would be:
SC652/hw