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for the plan to provide an element of
flexibility in response to developments
between now and 1997. The plan deliberately
focuses solely on Hong Kong related factors:
no account has been taken of external factors
such as SMG's regional defence interests in
connection with Nepal, Brunei, Korea and the
members of the Five Power Defence Arrangement
(although any of these may be affected by the
garrison withdrawal plan).
(c)
Threat:
Following the signature of the Joint
Declaration, no realistic external threat to
Hong Kong is posed by the PRC, the only power
traditionally assumed to do so. However,
prolonged instability in Hong Kong before
1997 might impel the Chinese to intervene
militarily to control the situation if IMG
seemed unable to do so. Such a situacion
would be disastrous for Hong Kong, and for
Sino-British co-operation over Hong Kong.
HMG considers that, provided the Police
expansion plan achieves its targets, the
REK?? will be able to control such internal
threats as can be identified, although it is
clearly possible that their capability to do
G.F. 316
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