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1997 approaches. Second, there could be internally generated disturbances, most probably for economic reasons, eg the collapse of a major bank. Third, there could be a reaction in Hong Kong
to upheaval or repression in China, as in the massive (but
peaceful) demonstrations which followed the Tiananmen massacre
in 1989. If the RHKP were unable to cope, the Chinese might be
tempted to invoke their oft stated right to intervene themselves.
That temptation would be stronger if the Chinese perceived that
HMG did not have the force immediately available to help deal
with the unrest. Credible and effective re-inforcement
arrangements would be essential.
7. It has already been agreed with the Hong Kong government that
one of the two Gurkha battalions should be temporarily redeployed
to carry out a tour in Belize between October 1993 to March 1994.
When it returns to Hong
Hong Kong, the UK resident battalion,
currently 1st Battalion The Black Watch, could be redeployed to
the UK and would be available for other duties. The Army have
requested that the move takes place somewhere between April and
September 1994. The two Gurkha battalions left in Hong Kong would
amalgamate, as already planned, into a single unit by September 1994. At some point before then, the resident garrison would
relinquish its capability to relieve the police on the border.
Before then we would also need to review our plans for re-
inforcement of Hong Kong and the role such re-inforcements might
carry out.
8. An accelerated run down along these lines would allow
reductions in support facilities to be made. An initial
assessment indicates that it should be possible to reduce overall
manpower numbers in the garrison to a maximum of 3,500 by 1
January 1995, compared with nearly 9000
It may also be
possible to make savings in RAF helicopter numbers though this will need to be investigated further. The RN patrol craft have a role in demonstrating sovereignty and helping
helping preserve territorial integrity, but are retained primarily for non-defence
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