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A plausible explanation for the decision would need to be given
which avoided reference to difficulties with LEGCO over financing
if the run down was not accelerated. (Use of this argument would
re-inforce existing worries that the Hong Kong government is no
longer "executive led".) As far as possible we should also take
account of the wider context of relations with China ove. Hong
Kong, including talks on constitutional development.
L
12. The majority of people in Hong Kong will welcome the
reduction in the costs of the garrison. Some however may
question whether an accelerated run-down reflected a lessening of
HMG's political commitment to Hong Kong. A few may express
concern at the removal of an immediate capacity to support the
police. In the UK there may be some focus on the wider picture
of the UK's ability to meet its military commitments. We will
also need to counter any perception that the more rapid rundown
implies a diminution of the UK's commitment to Hong Kong in the
last three years of our sovereignty in order to relieve
overstretch in the Army.
13. The announcement and public handling of such a reduction
would also require careful management, both in Hong Kong and in
the UK.
Finance
14. The Hong Kong government will benefit financially from these
proposals as a result of having to pay 65% of the costs of a
sharply reduced garrison. Initial calculations indicate that
this would generate savings for them of about £100m, compared
PA/S/2.033
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