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temptation would be stronger if the Chinese perceived that HMG not have the force immediately available to help deal with
the unrest. Credible and effective re-inforcement arrangements
would be essential.
7. It has already been agreed with the Hong Kong goverment that one of the two Gurkha battalions should be temporarily
redeployed to carry out a tour in Belize between October 1993 to
at present March 1994. The UK resident battalion, currently 1st Battalion The Black Watch, could be redeployed to the UK and would be
available for other duties. The Army have requested that the move takes place somewhere between April and September 1994. The two Gurkha battalions left in Hong Kong would amalgamate, as already planned, into a single unit by September 1994. At some
point before then, the resident garrison would relinquish its capability to relieve the police on the border. Before then we would also need to review our plans for re-inforcement of Hong Kong and the role such re-inforcements might carry out.
8. An accelerated run down along these lines would allow
reductions in support facilities to be made. An initial
assessment indicates that it should be possible to reduce overall manpower numbers in the garrison to approximately 3,000 by 1
January 1995, compared with nearly 9000 now. It may also be possible to make savings in RAF helicopter numbers though this will need to be investigated further. The RN patrol craft have a role in demonstrating sovereignty and helping preserve territorial integrity, but are retained primarily for non-defence reasons, at the instigation of the Hong Kong government. They
are not affected by these proposals.
PA/S/2.033
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