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assisting in securing reception points for re-inforcement. Even this limited capability could be in doubt if the battalions's fourth rifle company were re-deployed, as planned, to take on the Sandhurst demonstration company task. Support units would need to be adjusted to reflect this change in size and role. The requirement for RAF helicopters would depend on whether it was felt necessary to preserve a capability to move one company by air in two lifts, in which case we would need to retain current numbers. The RN patrol craft are retained primarily for political rather than defence reasons, with the full support of the Hong
Kong government.
4. All this would reduce the overall size of the garrison to about 2000-2500 military personnel compared with 6400 now. Such an approach carries some risk. In the event of a major internal security problem, it would not be possible, using in theatre resources, to release the roughly 500 police tied up on border duties. This has to be seen against an overall police force size of around 26,000 however. The Chinese (who we would need to inform) may regard such a step as a weakening of HMG's commitment to preserving internal security in Hong Kong until 1997 and might consequently feel that in the event of a major security crisis getting out of control they would be more justified in
intervening. Chinese perceptions will to some extent be conditioned by the general state of Sino-UK relations which, for a variety of reasons, are currently poor and are likely to remain volatile between now and 1997. It would be possible to rely on
re-inforcement, but without identifying a dedicated unit or group
of units which would defeat the object of reducing overstretch
it seems unlikely that we could have significant forces on the ground in much less than seven days. We would also be hampered by the fact that current plans for the re-inforcement of Hong Kong (JTP 30) have never been exercised: our experiences over WINGED DRAGON indicate how politically difficult this might be.
5. These risks relate to extreme circumstances which, although
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