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r
it.
Conclusion
10.
The military arguments are not decisive. Reduction to one
battalion in Hong Kong could lead to an unquantifiable increase
in the risk of a major internal security problem there getting
out of hand and necessitating a significant re-inforcement from
the UK. Bringing an extra battalion into the ETP would provide
a modest amelioration of overstretch. It would probably make the
Hong Kong Government's life easier in that it would remove a potential political problem at time when they have more than enough to deal with (though it would not necessarily lead to early financial savings for them). On the other hand, there is
a risk that such a move could be viewed as a premature weakening
of HMG's commitment to Hong Kong both by the Hong Kong population and by the Chinese, with unpredictable political and security
consequences. On balance, it is likely to be financially
disadvantageous to the MOD. But the Hong Kong Government may force us into paying some or all of any additional costs by
simply setting limits on the amount of money they are prepared
to pay under the DCA.
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