SECRET UK EYES A
arous to avoid. From a political point of view, it seems likely
that a more rapid run-down of the garrison would be welcomed by
elements of the Hong Kong Government and LEGCO for the financial
savings that would result, though there will be concern by manner
at such a visible reduction in the British commitment in Hong Kong, particularly if the withdrawal takes place at a time when
relations with China are strained.
6.
In the UK the addition of a further uncommitted infantry
battalion would provide welcome additional flexibility. intervals for the infantry as a whole would increase from 16
months to 17 on the basis of current commitments, from 13 to 14
if an additional battalion were sent to former Yugoslavia, and from 9 to 10 for a two brigade deployment there. However, there are currently no barracks planned to be available, though a major
deployment to former Yugoslavia might throw up rattle
accommodation. The RAF may also be able to find spare accommodation. From an Army manning point of view the early amalgamation of the two Gurkha battalions would cause significant disruption. Of the two battalions due to be amalgamated only 2GR is currently in Hong Kong: 6GR is not due to arrive from Brunei until July 1994 and starts the amalgamation process almost immediately thereafter. It is hard to see how this timetable could be advanced significantly without a major alteration to the existing Gurkha arms plot and/or a change in the battalions to be amalgamated. This is likely to be detrimental to the morale of the Brigade which is already relatively fragile. Resettlement facilities in Nepal are also fully stretched and would be very hard pressed to cope with an additional surge. All this points
towards the amalgamation being made in 1994/5 as planned rather
than in 1993/4, though that need not necessarily prevent the UK
battalion being brought back before the amalgamation was
complete.
7. Politically, while it would be possible to represent any easement of tour intervals positively, the fact that we have had
to pull a battalion out of
of Hong Kong to do it could give
ammunition to those
those claiming that the Army continues to be overstretched. Again, if this was done at a time of Sino-UK
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