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2. We subsequently asked MOD for the full picture. They have

replied that they have no other major reductions in mind in our overseas garrisons in the coming year, although they are careful to

add that all areas of MOD expenditure continue to be under scrutiny against their PES allocation. It also emerged in the exchanges

with MOD that their priority is to pin down a final date for

withdrawal from Belize and that they will not be particuarly

surprised at a flat rejection of their ideas for South Georgia.

3.

Against this background, and in the absence of other imminent proposals for large cuts, I think the way is clear to go ahead with the action recommended in Mr Sinton's submission of 21

December, 1992 and Mr Newton's of 17 December, 1992, namely writing

to the MOD with a revised timetable for withdrawal from Belize and

resisting withdrawal from South Georgia and the reduction of cover in the Falklands. Mr Beamish's letter about Belize should include

the refence to the West Indian Guard Ship recommended by Planners in Mr Cooper's submission of 31 December, 1992.

4.

But I remain convinced that we also need to keep our eye on

the wider picture. We have therefore drawn up a summary table of all out of area defence commitments (excluding UN forces) which includes the changes now proposed and longer terms plans where known. This allows the current proposals to be put in context.

shall keep the table up to date.

from Jomell

JB Donnelly

Head/Non-Proliferation and Defence Department

We

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