SECRET UK EYES A
possible. The disadvantages, leaving aside the practical difficulty of actually carrying out a major and rapid rundown,
would include:
their
a. The possibility of Chinese hostility, given preference for a strong British military presence to help maintain security in Hong Kong until 1997. It is possible that the lack of an in place military IS capability may make it more likely that the Chinese would exercise their oft stated right to intervene in Hong Kong before 1997 if they perceived that its stability were threatened.
b. The difficulty of restoring cuts once made, should the Hong Kong Government reverse its position as it did once before post Tiananmen.
c. Any contingent operational capability would be totally dependent on re-inforcement, with all the uncertainty regarding warning time and delay in decision making that this implies.
6. The latest indications are that the Governor does not support such a drastic step, which leaves us looking at options for maintaining a militarily viable garrison comprising the following
key elements:
a. Land. One infantry battalion to secure garrison installations and key points, including the re-inforcement airhead, and a second to provide a manoeuvre force capable of relieving the police on the border or elsewhere.
b. Air. Six Wessex aircraft to provide a capability to airlift one infantry company in two waves anywhere within the Territory.
Sea. There is no overriding defence need for the three
SECRET UK EYES A