SECRET
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The MOD are cranking up for the next of their biennial reviews of the garrison withdrawal plan.
As the first step, they have produced a short paper setting out a broad policy framework for the review. This has been agreed by the Chiefs. They plan to send a version of it to the
Governor under cover of a letter from Mr Rifkind,
copied to us (the shaded parts of this paper will be deleted before it goes to Hong Kong: an illustration of the problem we face). In brief, the MOD are proposing that of the present three
battalions (one UK and two Gurkha), one should be
withdrawn in 1994, a second in late 1996, and the
last (UK) battalion at the very last moment.
They regard two battalions as the minimum militarily useful force. There is no argument with the Governor about this timetable, as
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paragraph 4 of his telegram shows.
But HKG are facing a mounting problem in securing
support from the Legislative Council for the 65%
share of the full costs of the garrison which
they pay. (The fact that this is more than the
total cost of the garrison as shown in the MOD's
Long-Term Costings is not known to HKG.) They
have not fully paid their dues for 1992/93: for
reasons which are disputed between the two sides. They will therefore be carrying forward some of this year's payments into the 1993/94 year. Even so, the Governor wishes the cost to HKG of the
garrison to be on a declining trend from 93/94 onwards in order to ensure LegCo agreement to funding. The withdrawal plan as now envisaged will not start to have a real impact on costs until FY 1994/95.
SECRET