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UK EYES A
will be important that, in seeking the Governor's agreement to our ans for Garrison reductions, he is made aware of the financial onsequences and the need for the Hong Kong Government to meet its obligations under the DCA including their share of the costs associated with the run-down.
PUBLIC HANDLING
12.
Our current public line on the withdrawal plan is that it has been drawn up with our responsibilities for security in Hong Kong until 1997 fully in mind; that it is flexible and can be adjusted to meet changing circumstances; and that individual decisions on significant changes to the size of the Garrison will be announced once they are made. There is a case for being a little more forthcoming and publishing some of the key features of our current plans. It would help assuage public concern in Hong Kong in that it would show a definite downward trend in the Garrison's size and might thus defuse some of the criticism about the its size and cost which in turn leads to the sort of difficulties we are having over the DCA. It might also be reassuring both to Hong Kong, in that it would show that we intended to retain a Garrison till the point of handover, and to China, who would prefer to see a significant British presence right to the end. It might also reduce speculative, inaccurate and unhelpful local media reporting. the other hand, it could undesirably reduce our room for manoeuvre, particularly on the timing of the withdrawal of battalions. were to specify a date for withdrawal in advance of a final decision being taken, no amount of caveating would prevent difficult and pointed questions being posed if we decided to change our minds.
13.
On
If we
It ought, however, to be possible to steer a middle course which would satisfy both criteria, by being reasonably specific about things which are not going to have a high operational profile, such as the ending of accompanied service, the movement of HQ Brigade of Gurkhas to the UK, the fact that the last battalion to be withdrawn will be British etc, and by giving a time bracket for more sensitive events, such as the withdrawal of Gurkha battalions. At Annex B is a draft withdrawal timetable for public consumption, drawn up with this in mind.
14. We will also need to consider how to inform the Chinese (and other interested Governments such as Nepal and Brunei) of our plans and the extent to which this will need to be done in advance of public notification.
SUMMARY
15.
In sum, it is recommended that Ministers should
a. Agree that we should plan on the withdrawal of the next Gurkha battalion in the second half of 1994, with a firm announcement being made as soon as possible after the detailed Review is complete in September 1993.
b. Note the factors that will need to be taken into account in handling the last 6 months of the Garrison and in
COSSEC/S/2.004
6
UK EYES A
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