23
CONFIDENTIAL
Flash Incidents
3
Public
8.
concern over the liquidation of the Bank of Credit and Commerce and the subsequent runs on Citibank and the Standard Chartered Bank, have again demonstrated how quickly problems can develop into flash incidents. Against a background of uncertainty over 1997 and a perceived weakening of Government authority, it is likely that incidents of this nature will continue to arise. In the absence of a unifying force, however it is unlikely that such situations could develop into a sustained uncontrollable internal security problem.
Illegal Immigrants
9.
on
or
Illegal immigration figures for 1992 are 40.2% higher than those for 1991. The lure of work construction projects is a major pull factor given the local labour shortage and figures are expected to remain high. Factors such as those described in para 4 and illegal immigration surges as the result of natural
deteriorating economic conditions, particularly in South China, will always have the potential to compound the problem. At present, however, illegal immigration does not pose a direct threat.
disasters
or
The Economy
1.0.
The continuing success of the Hong Kong economy in the face of world recession has been a major factor in maintaining stability. This has been underpinned in no small part by the booming economic relationship with Guangdong and other parts of Nevertheless, Hong Kong does tend to over-react to events and rumours are manufactured at great speed. While an escalation of flash incidents against a backdrop of severe economic or financial breakdown would pose a significant threat to
China.
security, it is not one which would be outside the abilities of the police force to handle.
CONFIDENTIAL