system/large-scale emigration/riots in the streets.
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immigration pressures.
11.
Kenya: widespread violence arising out of breakdown in transition to multi-party rule and/or economic
deterioration.
£1bn UK investments; 43,000 UK British etc citizens eligible for potential evacuation; significant trade interests.
Civil strife during election campaign or following KANU victory in election scheduled for December. Food Food etc shortages. Increase in criminal violence in towns.
HMG's pressure on Kenyan
government and opposition to facilitate political
transition; and on government to agree IMF programme
permitting resumption of balance of payments support.
12.
Iran: external:
obtains Soviet nuclear weapons, complicating relationships with Iraq, Gulf States, and Tajikistan; internal: secular experiment of Rafsanjani goes wrong and causes disturbances.
13.
Former Soviet
republics:
Tajikistan, Georgia, Moldova, increasing internal conflict threatens Russian population, Russia intervenes militarily in their defence; protracted conflict.
Limited: but will increase nationalist pressures, making him more difficult to deal with on diplomatic level. Calls from republics concerned to UN/CSCE claiming violation of international borders.
Breakdown of central authority, to the stage intervention seems only option. Ethnic cleansing of Russians would be ominous.
Close monitoring of situation; we maintain aid and assistance to the FSU as a means of defusing tension during transition period.
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