11 May 1993
HKA DE2/1
Ms P M Aldred
D(DEF) POL
MOD
26.
1993
Foreign & Commonwealth Office
London SW1A 2AH
270 3761
(14)
Dear
Dear Marganet,
STATEMENT ON THE DEFENCE ESTIMATES 1993 (SDE 93): THIRD DRAFT
1. Thank you for giving us an opportunity to comment on the third draft of SDE 93, which - as you note in your covering minute has changed considerably from the previous draft. We have circulated the draft within the FCO, and the following represents our collective views.
2. We have two general comments. First, Chapter 1 still seems rather fragmented. It does not yet clearly explain clearly how the threats and challenges faced by NATO have changed; how NATO has adapted to meet them; how the WEU has developed in relation to NATO; and how force structures need to be adapted to deal with the likely threats in the future. Instead, the emphasis is on the old analysis (ie Options), even though this is acknowledged to have been overtaken, at least in part.
The draft seems to come out in favour of the old-style military defence structure, with a continued emphasis on nuclear forces, rather than recognising the need for an increased emphasis on capabilities suited to out of area scenarios. The sections justifying the UK independent deterrent and nuclear testing in particular need some further work, and will presumably have to be rewritten after OPD(N) at the end of this month. A clear line on sub-strategic nuclear forces will also be required. The Chapter as a whole illustrates the need for an overall security policy into which defence policy can slot.
3.
Second, we are sceptical about the wisdom of publishing the methodology and conclusions of the internal ISG exercise in Chapters 2-4. Even if it is not indigestible to the layman, it could give a lot of hostages to fortune. A broad summary is surely all that is required.
4. We have a number of detailed drafting suggestions, many flowing from these general comments, which I am annexing to this letter.
Your ever
het Good
P Gooderham
Security Policy Dept
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CONFIDENTIAL