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053411 MDHIAN 8624
CATEGORY.
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IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SCHEME WILL NOT APPLY TO OVERSEAS PENSIONABLE OFFICERS ON THE GROUNDS THAT THEY ACCEPTED PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT ON THEIR ORIGINAL TERMS. IN ANY CASE, AS YOU KNOW, TRANSFERS TO THE OVERSEAS PENSIONABLE ESTABLISHMENT ARE NO LONGER PERMITTED. THIS GROUP IS THEREFORE FINITE AND DECLINING.
STAFF REACTION.
9. WE EXPECT TO BE HEAVILY CRITICISED BY LOCAL STAFF ASSOCIATIONS
WHO WILL SEE THIS CHANGE IN POLICY AS BLOCKING THEIR MEMBERS'
PROMOTION PROSPECTS. THESE ASSOCIATIONS MAY LOBBY THE CHINESE. REACTION AMONG EXPATRIATES IS LIKELY TO BE MIXED. SOME WOULD WELCOME THE CHANGES WHILE SOME MAY RESENT THE NEED TO NATURALISE AT BDTCS IN ORDER TO BECOME PERMANENT RESIDENTS AND BE ELIGIBLE FOR TRANSFER. OTHERS MAY WORRY THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A BACKLASH AFTER 1997.
CHINESE REACTION.
10.
ALTHOUGH OUR PROPOSALS HAVE BEEN FRAMED WITH A VIEW TO MINIMISING DIFFICULTIES WITH THE CHINESE, THEY WILL NONETHELESS BE EXTREMELY SUSPICIOUS. THEIR PRINCIPAL OBJECTION TO THE CHANGE IN POLICY WILL NO DOUBT BE ON THE GROUNDS THAT IT HAS BEEN ENGENDERED BY THE BILL OF RIGHTS. THEY MAY ALSO OBJECT TO THE INEVITABLE INCREASE WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE NUMBER OF EXPATRIATES IN RELATIVELY SENIOR POSITIONS BEYOND 1997.
11.
THE NCNA HAVE RECENTLY ASKED FOR A BRIEFING ON THIS SUBJECT (POSSIBLY PROMPTED BY LOBBYING FROM STAFF ASSOCIATIONS). WE
PROPOSE TO INFORM THEM OF OUR INTENTIONS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY
WILL AT THE VERY LEAST ASK US TO WITHHOLD ACTION PENDING THEIR FURTHER CONSIDERATION. ALTERNATIVELY, THEY COULD DEMAND FULL CONSULTATION: OR EVEN DEMAND IMMEDIATELY THAT WE WITHDRAW THE PROPOSAL. WE CANNOT ACCEPT ANY OF THESE COURSES OF ACTION AS WE DO
NOT BELIEVE IN THE PRESENT CLIMATE THAT THE CHINESE WILL EVER AGREE TO WHAT WE PROPOSE. WE FEAR THAT ANY DELAY WILL ONLY RESULT IN US BEING TAKEN TO COURT AND LOSING, WHICH WILL IN TURN ONLY SERVE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BILL OF RIGHTS ANGLE, THUS EXACERBATING WHAT IS ALREADY A VERY TRICKY SITUATION AND POSSIBLY PROVOKING A CHINESE THREAT TO ANNUL THE BILL OF RIGHTS IN 1997. ACCORDINGLY THE LEAST
BAD OPTION APPEARS TO BE TO INFORM THE CHINESE AND IMPLEMENT THE
NEW POLICY IMMEDIATELY.
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