CONFIDENTIAL
001412
MDHIAN 7812
OPPRESSIVE AND INCOMPETENT.
15. A LOOMING PROBLEM IS THE SECTION 301 TRADE DISPUTE BETWEEN PEKING AND WASHINGTON OVER MARKET ACCESS FOR U.S. EXPORTS. THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTED BY THE FAILURE OF THE TWO SIDES TO RESOLVE CHINA'S MOST FAVOURED NATION STATUS ON A LONG-TERM BASIS (INSTEAD OF THE CURRENT AND CONTENTIOUS ANNUAL RENEWAL). THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT COMMITTED TO A TOUGHER LINE ON CHINA'S HUMAN RIGHTS IS ALSO A SOURCE OF ANXIETY.
16.
FOR THE TIME BEING , HOWEVER, HONG KONG EXPECTS TO BENEFIT FROM THE UNABATED CHINESE ECONOMIC BOOM. IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1992, GNP GREW BY 11 PER CENT NATIONALLY AND 13 PER CENT IN GUANGDONG. GROSS INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT GREW BY 18 PER CENT NATIONALLY AND 27 PER CENT IN GUANGDONG, AND EXPORTS BY 17 PER CENT NATIONALLY AND 38 PER CENT IN GUANGDONG. FOREIGN INVESTMENT ''ACTUALLY UTILISED'' GREW BY 95 PER CENT NATIONALLY AND 85 PER CENT IN GUANGDONG. THESE MEASURES OF GROWTH HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TERRITORY'S BALANCE SHEETS SINCE HONG KONG REMAINS THE
MAJOR INVESTOR AND MANUFACTURER IN GUANGDONG.
LAW AND ORDER
17. FEARS ABOUT THE LEVEL OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY HAVE STARTED TO RECEDE, AFTER CLIMBING DRAMATICALLY IN MAY. CNTA POLLS SHOW THAT BY JULY, PUBLIC ANXIETY ON THIS ISSUE HAD FALLEN BACK TO ROUGHLY THE SAME LEVELS AS IN JANUARY.
18.
THIS IMPROVEMENT REFLECTS THE UNDERLYING REALITY THAT HONG KONG IS AMONG THE WORLD'S MOST LAW-ABIDING COMMUNITIES. POLICE STATISTICS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF THE YEAR SHOWED A 5 PER
CENT DECLINE IN THE OVERALL CRIME RATE. VIOLENT CRIME DECLINED BY 3 PER CENT. (ARMED ROBBERIES FELL BY 15 PER CENT.) EQUALLY ENCOURAGING TO THE COMMUNITY WERE THE SIGNS THAT THE GUANGDONG AUTHORITIES ARE WILLING TO MAKE A GREATER EFFORT TO SUPPRESS CROSS-BORDER CRIME. THE PUBLIC HOPES THAT THE RETURN OF WANTED SUSPECTS FROM CHINESE TERRITORY, EVEN ON A TOKEN SCALE, WILL HELP TO DETER MAINLAND GANGSTERS FROM SEEKING CONTRACTS TO CARRY OUT
VIOLENT CRIMES IN HONG KONG.
VIETNAMESE MIGRANTS
19. ON 25 AUGUST, THE TOTAL CAMP POPULATION WAS 51, 102 (COMPARED WITH 60,023 ON 1 JANUARY), INCLUDING 3,057 WITH REFUGEE STATUS (4,409 ON 1 JANUARY). BY THE END OF AUGUST, 21,450 WILL HAVE RETURNED TO VIETNAM UNDER THE VOLUNTARY REPATRIATION
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