CONFIDENTIAL
001407 MDHIAN 7810
ON OCTOBER 7, I WILL MAKE MY POLICY ADDRESS TO LEGCO OUTLINING MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL PROPOSALS (WHICH I LOOK FORWARD TO DISCUSSING WITH THE MINISTER).
OCTOBER 10 IS THE DEADLINE BY WHICH CHINA MUST MAKE CONCESSIONS TO AVOID PUNITIVE U.S. TARIFFS. (THESE WOULD HARM THE TERRITORY'S CONSIDERABLE MANUFACTURING INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CHINA.)
OCTOBER 12 14 ARE THE DATES SCHEDULED FOR MY FIRST VISIT TO PEKING. (THE PUBLIC DOES NOT EXPECT A BREAKTHROUGH ON THE AIRPORT BEFORE MY TRIP.)
OCTOBER IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD IN WHICH THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY WILL CONVENE ITS 14TH NATIONAL CONGRESS. (ITS DECISIONS ON PERSONALITIES AND POLITICS WILL REFLECT THE SUCCESS, OR OTHERWISE, OF DENG XIAOPING'S 1992 CAMPAIGN TO ENTRENCH ECONOMIC REFORM.)
LIMITED POLITICAL DEBATE
5. DISCUSSION OF THE POLITICAL OPTIONS WHICH LIE AHEAD WAS DISTRACTED FOR MUCH OF JULY BY SPECULATION ABOUT MY OWN PERSONALITY AND POLICY PREFERENCES. HOWEVER, INTEREST IN SUBSTANTIVE ISSUES IS NOW REVIVING, THOUGH ON A LIMITED SCALE. THERE HAS BEEN A PARTICULARLY KEEN MEDIA DEBATE ABOUT THE FUTURE COMPOSITION OF THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL. THE OFFER TO RESIGN BY ALL NON-OFFICIAL MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL HAS ENCOURAGED WIDESPREAD DISCUSSION OF THE SORT OF EXCO HONG KONG NOW NEEDS. THE PUBLIC SEEMS READY FOR QUITE RADICAL CHANGES.
6. THE POLITICAL PARTIES WOULD PREFER TO CONTINUE WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF OVERLAPPING MEMBERSHIP BETWEEN EXCO AND LEGCO. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE MEDIA, AND POSSIBLY THE WIDER COMMUNITY, SEEM TO ACCEPT THAT CONTINUED CRC DOMINATION OF EXCO IS UNACCEPTABLE BUT THAT PEKING WOULD FIND INTOLERABLE THE CREATION OF A COALITION EXCO WHICH INCLUDED UDHK REPRESENTATIVES. IN CONSEQUENCE, PUBLIC REACTION TO SUGGESTIONS THAT THE TWO COUNCILS SHOULD BE TOTALLY SEPARATE HAS BEEN FAVOURABLY MIXED, ALTHOUGH FINAL JUDGEMENT IS BEING RESERVED UNTIL MY FULL CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE IS REVEALED ON 7 OCTOBER.
7.
TO DATE, CHINESE OFFICIALS AND THE PRO-PEKING MEDIA HAVE SEEMED TO BE SOMEWHAT CONFUSED ON KEY POLITICAL ISSUES. AFTER
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CONFIDENTIAL