CONFIDENTIAL
FM WASHINGTON
CONFIDENTIAL
HKD 021/2
RECENTDI*
འ
TO DESKBY 070900Z ACO"
TELNO 275
OF 070101Z FEBRUARY 92
13 FE 1992
TOP COPY QDIST?
V7/2.28
072553
MDHIAN 2112
Enter
ja7/2
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG, UKREP JLG HONG KONG, BTC HONG KONG INFO PRIORITY PEKING, ACTOR
FOR HKD
YOUR TELNO 139: THE US/HK POLICY ACT 1991 (THE MCCONNELL BILL)
SUMMARY
1
·
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHETHER, OR WHEN, THE BILL WILL BECOME
MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ADMINISTRATION'S ATTITUDE. BEST TACTIC FOR THE TIME BEING IS TO ENSURE THAT THE ADMINISTRATION ARE AWARE OF OUR CONCERNS, AND LEAVE THEM TO PRESS MCCONNELL FOR CHANGES.
LAW.
DETAIL
2.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHETHER, OR WHEN, THE BILL WILL BECOME LAW. THE KEY WILL BE WHETHER THE ADMINISTRATION ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT IT. AS REPORTED IN OUR TELNO 237, THE ADMINISTRATION WILL SOON START TALKING TO MCCONNELL IN THE HOPE OF PERSUADING HIM TO AMEND THE BILL (PARTICULARLY BY CHANGING THE REPORTING REQUIREMENT). DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME, THE ADMINISTRATION WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO SUPPORT THE BILL. IF THEY AGREE TO DO SO, IT COULD HAVE A RELATIVELY SMOOTH PASSAGE THROUGH CONGRESS (ALTHOUGH EVEN ON THE FASTEST POSSIBLE TIMETABLE, IT IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME LAW BEFORE LATE SPRING). BUT IF THE ADMINISTRATION DECIDE TO OPPOSE THE BILL, AND URGE REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS TO DO THE SAME, IT WILL BECOME A PARTISAN ISSUE, WHICH WILL INEVITABLY REQUIRE MORE CONGRESSIONAL TIME, IN AN ELECTION YEAR WITH OTHER MORE HIGH PROFILE PRIORITIES, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CONGRESS WILL FIND TIME FOR IT.
3.
SEEN FROM HERE A PUBLIC STATEMENT WILL NOT HELP OBTAIN CHANGES IN THE BILL. MOST CONGRESSMEN WOULD REALISE THAT OUR DIFFICULTIES DERIVE FROM OUR CONCERN OVER THE CHINESE REACTION, RATHER THAN FROM MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE TEXT ITSELF (WHICH IS CLOSELY MODELLED ON THE JD). THIS WOULD EXPOSE US TO THE
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