CONFIDENTIAL
122477
MDTTAN 3433
DECIDED TO MOVE TO A NORMALISATION OF RELATIONS WITH CHINA, BUT HUMAN RIGHTS REMAINED IN THE FOREFRONT OF OUR MINDS. BURNS MENTIONED THAT ONE OTHER CONCERN WE HAD WAS THAT THE CHINESE SEEMED TO BE PLANNING A BIG BLUE WATER NAVY.
6.
SAITO SAID THAT THE JAPANESE CONTINUED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SALE OF MISSILES AND OTHER WEAPONS BY THE CHINESE, IN PARTICULAR TO COUNTRIES LIKE IRAN, THOUGH HE NOTED THAT THE CHINESE HAD COMMITTED THEMSELVES TO ADHERE TO MTCR GUIDELINES. HE SAID THAT WHEN KAIFU AS PRIME MINISTER HAD VISITED CHINA HE HAD URGED THEM TO JOIN THE NPT: LATER THEY HAD MADE THE COMMITMENT, BUT WERE NOW DELAYING, THOUGH THE JAPANESE DID NOT DOUBT THAT THEY EVENTUALLY INTENDED TO ACCEDE TO IT.
7.
APPLEYARD SAID THAT IN THE LONGER TERM THE CHINESE WERE FACED BY A PARADOX. AT SOME POINT, ECONOMIC REFORM WOULD HAVE TO LEAD TO POLITICAL REFORM AND THEY WERE CAUTIOUS ABOUT LETTING THAT WALL BE BREACHED. THE ADVANCES WHICH HAD BEEN MADE IN SOUTH CHINA WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO CLAW BACK, AND ANYWAY THE CHINESE NEEDED THE CASH. THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE EX-SOVIET ASIAN REPUBLICS WOULD INTENSIFY CENTRIFUGAL PRESSURES IN CHINA (TO SAY NOTHING OF THE TIME BOMB OF TIBET). CHINESE COMMUNISM COULD NOT SURVIVE IN ITS PRESENT FORM. THE QUESTION WAS WHETHER THE PROCESS OF CHANGE WOULD BE RAPID OR SLOW, PEACEFUL OR VIOLENT. BURNS SAID THAT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF HONG KONG WE WOULD WANT PEACEFUL CHANGE AND NOT CHAOS OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.
SIGNED SR SHERRINGTON
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