goods and services.
The growth in intra-regional trade is shown through three distinct trends: (1) trade
expansion of the ASEAN-4, the ANIES, China, and Japan with Asia, (2) growth in
intra-ANIES trade and (3) growth in China-ANIES trade. Tables 1 and 2 show the
export and import dependence on Asia of the ANIES and the ASEAN-4 with Asia.
Between the years 1980-89, the export and import dependence on Asia of these
economies increased significantly. Tables 3 and 4 give some detailed breakdown of
changes in intra-regional and inter-regional trade over the period 1985 to 1990. In
Table 4, it is observed that the share of ANIEs' exports to Asia increased from 22.9%
to 28.9% and the share of imports from 25.9% to 31.1%. The increase is less drastic for
the Asean-4 (Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia); their share of exports to
Asia increased from 25.7% to 28.3% and the share of imports from 25.3% to 26.1%. But
at a more disaggregate level, it is shown that the manufactured exports of the Asean-4
to Asia increased very drastically, while non-manufactured exports declined. Table 5
shows that in 1989, 67.3% of ANIEs' imports from the Asean-4 was manufactured
products.
Intra-regional trade is expected to generate significant and long term impacts on the
region. Two observations account for this assertion. Firstly, empirical evidence has
shown that the ANIES are reducing their trade dependence on the U.S., but increasing
on Japan. This change can help to sustain Asia's economic growth in times ahead by
making the region less vulnerable to the economic conditions of the industrialized
countries. Secondly, in this decade the global economy is likely to evolve into three
trading blocs, namely, U.S.-Canada-Mexico, the European Community, and Japan-Asia.
The former two are likely to become trading blocs which could be protectionistic against
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