SECRET 高度機密
The Domestic Threat
17.
We believe the
economy to be the major
Territory's stability.
retrenchment or collapse
continuing success of Hong Kong's
factor behind the maintenance of the
A period of severe domestic economic
which had a seriously detrimental
effect on the personal livelihood or wealth of a significant
number of Hong Kong people could create a climate of instability
capable of fostering public disorder.
A slump of such
proportions could be brought about by:
(a)
a breakdown in the Chinese economy, in particular
any serious setback in Guangdong (this could also
produce intense illegal immigration pressure at
the border);
(b)
protectionist
action against Hong Kong or China
by their economic partners, for instance
withdrawal of China's MFN status;
the
(c)
a
major change in China's economic or foreign
policy leading to her isolation;
(d)
a worldwide recession;
18.
(e) a loss of trade competitiveness caused by, for
inflationary
example,
pressure, inadequate
reinvestment or
a COCOM "squeeze" on high
technology supplies to Hong Kong.
Within such
a climate, a strong adverse public
response to any of the following developments could pose a major
internal security threat:
(a)
large-scale
disagreement between China and Britain
leading to the abandonment of the Joint Declaration;
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