CONFIDENTIAL
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
1992 Article IV Consultation Discussions
Hong Kong
Concluding Remarks
November 13, 1992
CONFIDENTIAL
Hong Kong's economy has performed strongly during the past year.
Growth has gained further momentum, with rapid increases in investment and
private consumption underpinned by strong confidence and accommodative
financial conditions.
Exports have also accelerated, reflecting strong
demand in China as well as a further expansion in re-exports of goods
produced in China.
The growth of output should comfortably reach, or even
exceed, the latest official forecast of 5 percent in 1992.
Notwithstanding the pick-up in growth, there has been some relief on
the inflation front. The overall rate of consumer price inflation has
fallen from 12 percent in 1991 to an average of 9 1/2 percent (year-on-year)
in the first nine months of this year, indicating some easing in resource
constraints. The unemployment rate rose somewhat in 1991 and the first half
of 1992, owing to a pickup in labor force growth that reflected both a
reduction in net outward migration and the inflow of foreign workers under
new Government schemes; average wage increases have also edged down
somewhat.
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