G. 316
SECRET Z
China's Levers
PAO(S) 2/1156/91
1.
This paper seeks to identify the levers which China could use against us; and to suggest some possible palliative
measures.
2.
He
An early takeover of Hong Kong would obviously be the ultimate measure. Politburo Standing Committee Member Li Ruihuan dismissed reports of this possibility during a meeting with a Hong Kong textile delegation on 1 December. and other Chinese officials have stated in recent days that In the Chinese policy towards Hong Kong remains unchanged. various statements that they have issued, the Chinese have been careful to base their position on the Joint Declaration, the Basic Law or the MOU and to stress that they remain attached to them. But there have been some reports that the Chinese would contemplate this if we held a referendum on the Governor's constitutional proposals. We cannot totally dismiss these.
3.
Short of an early takeover, China appears intent on targetting the HKG rather than the people of Hong Kong in general, although the effect of measures against HKG can often hurt Hong Kong in general. There have been no signs that the Chinese intend to disrupt cross-border trade or food or water supplies.
4.
The following forms of possible anti-HKG action are examined in greater depth below:
threats against those who support the
Governor's political proposals, directed
particularly against Legco members, but also
SECRET 高度機密