36-NOV-1992 12:29
BRITISH TRADE COMM
F.04
ofver in the hands of a number of well-connected and unaccountable individuals is may be more hardly a recipe for prosperity and stability, as the sad experience of the Philippines under dangerous... Marcos illustrates.
undermining the bases of
It should also be noted that Hong Kong has been transformed in recent years into a fairly...by sophisticated service centre and consequently the quality of its performance hinges to a considerable extent on the rule of law and free flow of information. This was not the case when the territory directod its resources towards the production of low value -added manufacturing goods and is not true of China which is at the early stages of its industrial development. Democracy may have not been a necessity for Hong Kong previously and may be a luxury for the mainland but it is essential at this juncture given the fact that it is the only political system conducive to the rule of law and free flow of information.
The impeccable logic behind the governor's initiatives notwithstanding, one has to concede that they are highly problematic from a Beijing perspective. Since the traumatic events of June 1989 the Chinese political elite has displayed a "siege mentality" highlighting at every opportunity the dangers of chaos (iwan), turmoil (dongluan) and rebellion (bacluan). Patten's attempts to breathe new life into the defunct "one country. two systems" concept and steer Hong Kong towards genuine autonomy (rather than independence) raise for the Beijing oid guard the spectre of erosion of control authority and action inimical to its interests.
The governor's direct style possibly compounds the problem. Whereas his tactics are akin to those of a Sumo wrestler, the Chinese are practitioners of Tai Chi (ie shadow boxing). He pushes and shoves and they offer oblique phrases and ambiguous gestures; he values clarity and purposeful engagement and they prefer flexibility and open-ended dialogue: he believes that time is a scarce commodity and should be used constructively and they think that it can be stretched indefinitely and treated philosophically. The upshot apparently is that he evokes in Beijing images of "bull in a China shop" and the reaction is predictably negative.
An even more significant factor in the equation is the perception in Beijing that democracy is a luxury that China cannot afford for the time being. Gorbachev's ill-fated attempt to pursue economic reform and political liberalization simultaneously has convinced Deng Xiaoping and his cronies that this is an impossible task. They are determined to follow the South Korean/Taiwanese model and concentrate on the challenge of revitalizing the economy while ruling with an iron fist in the political sphere (the Beijing think tanks have coined the term "neo-authoriarianism" to capture the essence of this strategy).
Needless to say, Patien's democratic ambitions fly in the face of that blueprint. The point is that the seeds of open government that he hopes to sow in the territory could germinate and spread into China. And if they do this would undermine the position of the Communist party and prove costly in economic terms. While the exaggerated fears of Beijing's ageing powerholders may strike impartial observers as verging on the irrational, to them Soviet- style breakdown/collapse/disintegration is clearly a real threat and a prospect that cannot be contemplated passively.
The support extended to the governor's efforts by Western politicians (American, Australian and Canadian), although welcome from a Hong Kong perspective, unfortu- nately serves to exacerbate the sense of paranoia to which these efforts give rise in China. Conspiracy theorists in Beijing need no further proof that Patten is not acting in an honourable manner but spearheading a campaign orchestrated by agents of international capitalism whose goal is to steer the mainland away from socialism through tactics that purists in China euphemistically describe as "peaceful evolution". Again, in so far as Deng Xiaoping is concerned, this form of pressure is to be resisted vigorously.
We have chosen to discuss the issues involved in some detail because there is probably far more at stake here, on both sides, than market players realize. Once the Legislative Council (LEGCO) approves the governor's proposals, which seems increasingly likely
HK's sophisticated service economy
Nevertheless. initiatives
aggravated Beijing's
"siege mentality"
Governor's tactical style
produced a negative response
China's leaders trying to mimic SK
and Taiwan
...and worry
that developments in HK could undermine their efforts
International support also fuels
paranoia
Likely LEGĈO
endorsement
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